# TFTC #748 – The Bond Market Says Tick Tock with Luke Gromen

**Date:** 2026-05-21
**Guest:** Luke Gromen (FFTT founder, macro analyst)
**Host:** Peruvian Bull / Marty Bent
**Topics:** sovereign-debt, us-fiscal-crisis, iran-war, hormuz-strait, supply-chain, ai-labor-disruption, china-strategy, gold-reserves, bitcoin, stablecoins, kevin-warsh, federal-reserve, inflation, generational-inequality

## Key Points

- US fiscal math: interest ($1T) + entitlements ($3.8T) > total receipts ($5.2T) — mathematically impossible to cut to 3% deficit without 20% cuts to defense + entitlements
- Kevin Warsh as Fed chair: likely to cut rates, shrink balance sheet (sell bonds), deregulate banks to buy treasuries — "backdoor QE with better marketing"
- Iran/Strait of Hormuz still closed; Iran retains significant fire control; supply chain disruptions (motor oil -40%, sulfur shortage)
- Oil supply chain crisis pushing the world into China's EV/solar/battery ecosystem
- AI disruption: Ken Griffin admits months of work done in days; AI undermines tax base as employment taxes are ~50% of receipts
- China strategy: everyone visiting Beijing; gold settlement framework via offshore yuan clearing banks in major gold hubs
- Reserve assets: gold surpassed treasuries in global FX reserves; Bitcoin as ultimate neutral reserve asset
- Stablecoin contradictions: Genius Act vs bank stability; OFAC froze $344M Tether (IRGC); Iran settling Hormuz insurance in Bitcoin
- Gromen's 2-3 year base case: 12-15% inflation reported as 4-4.5%, gold/Bitcoin price caps attempted, stocks up in dollars but down in gold/BTC
- Generational inequality: boomers receive 80% of federal spending; first American generation worse off than parents; Yale graduates can't find jobs